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MRC-Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge
July 7, 2023
Courtesy: Randall Monroe, xkcd: <https://xkcd.com/1838>
Modelling technique operates at individual level (such as persons, households, vehicles, or firms)
Estimates how demographic, behavioral, and policy changes might affect individual outcomes; also
To better understand the effects of current policies
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Individual level (such as persons, households, vehicles, or firms)
Autonomous entity - with limited learning/adaptability abilities
Local interactions impact macro/aggregate levels
Explorative that can be used for explanation or prediction
Resource intensive - even with sample population
Nuanced understanding
Synthetic Population1
Social/physical space
Rules of engagement with other actors/environment
Census population
Localized prediction model based on the most recent Census
Surveys (like a travel or Physical Activity Survey)
All-cause mortality rate: National Statistics offices/Global Burden of Disease Study
All-cause mortality rate trends: National Statistics offices
Population for each cohort (can also be 100,000 or similar figure)
Average life years without intervention: 6,362
Average life years without intervention: 7,005
Life years gained: 643 (7,005 - 6,362)
Caveat
Probability of dying increases with age
Morbidity is captured by proportional multi-state lifetable models
Microsimulation
Pros:
Large state spaces and captures diversity/heterogeneity on number of variables
May incorporate expert opinions
Cons:
Technologically challenging and resource intensive
(Yet) unsupported assumptions
Lifetable Modelling
Pros
Relatively easy to set up
Comparatively low data requirements and easier to justify using Cost Benefit Analysis
Cons
Only mortality modelling
Typically based on annual rates
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